The risk of a protracted conflict between the US and Iran, the accelerating regionalization of platinum group metals (PGM) markets, and the launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) in China have become the main drivers of a structural shift in the mining, pricing, and trading of PGMs, according to Metals Focus.
The British-based research consultancy specializing in the global precious metals markets notes in its latest PGMs 2026 report that all five main PGMs experienced shortages last year, and prices rose significantly amid increased investor inflows, gold substitution in the jewelrymarket, and growing speculation about strategic ownership. The report found that all five major PGMs entered physical deficits in 2025, with the PGM basket price rising 28% year-on-year, driven by a tightening physical balance, increased investor demand, and concerns about the impact of trade and strategic access policies on trade flows.
Platinum inventories recorded a third consecutive deficit of 461,000 ounces, palladium a fourth consecutive deficit of 433,000 ounces, and rhodium a deficit of 116,000 ounces. Iridium and ruthenium inventories were 34,000 and 312,000 ounces, respectively.
Metals Focus explains that the 2025 platinum revaluation was driven by improved investor access to markets, optimism about gold substitution, and periodic physical market shortages, further fueled by the launch of platinum and palladium futures on China’s GFEX exchange in November 2025.
The company describes retail platinum investment as outstanding, increasing 96% to 402,000 ounces, with record purchases from China accounting for approximately 60% of global purchases.
Above-ground stocks continued to decline last year. Platinum inventories fell to 9.3 million ounces, equivalent to approximately 14 months of demand coverage, while palladium inventories fell to 10.7 million ounces, or 13 months of coverage. Above-ground rhodium inventories have fallen to less than four months’ supply, supporting high prices despite the narrowing deficit.
Furthermore, the report indicates that mine production volumes continued to decline in 2025. Total platinum primary supplies fell 4% year-on-year to 5.6 million ounces, while palladium supplies from mines fell to 6.3 million ounces. Total platinum metal scrap supplies increased 7% year-on-year to 4.9 million ounces in 2025. The increase in jewelry scrap volumes was largely driven by destocking in China in the second half of the year.
According to Metals Focus, platinum jewelry demand rose 10% to a nine-year high of 2.2 million ounces, as producers shifted from gold to platinum amid high gold prices. The company forecasts a platinum deficit of 312,000 ounces this year, with surface stocks declining to 9 million ounces.
Following a sharp revaluation in 2025, the average platinum price is expected to reach $2,190 per ounce this year, up 71% from last year. Palladium prices are expected to average $1,570 per ounce (up 37%), while rhodium prices are expected to rise 62% year-on-year to $10,200 per ounce. Iridium demand is forecast to remain at 273,000 ounces, with stable mine supplies leading to a market deficit of 34,000 ounces. According to Metals Focus, the liquidity shortage should support an average price of $7,200 per ounce, up 64% from the previous year. The ruthenium market is in deficit by 210,000 ounces, and after a sharp price reversal this year, the average ruthenium price is forecast to reach $1,560 per ounce, a 114% increase from 2025 levels.
“All five metals remain in deficit, but price outcomes will increasingly be shaped by investor flows, stock movements and policy intervention rather than supply-demand balances alone,” Metals Focus analysts noted.